Disinformation, foreign state interference and local communities

Part 1 – An Introduction – two worlds colliding

---

The commitments to NetZero carbon economies made at COP26 was a major step down the road of developing our future economies. At varying speeds of acceleration, we will see the major industrial nations take the necessary steps to achieve the Zero Carbon objectives, with other nations to follow close behind. When it comes to articulating the mechanical means of sustaining our advanced societies and hitting these targets, we are in practice talking about electrification. Electrification does not mean an end to our reliance on natural resources, but it does require a shift in demand for resources^[1]. With electrification there is a real sense of hope and opportunity in the progression of today’s societies and their living environment.  

Changes in the world order towards the end of the last century were drivers of optimism too, and a new sense of possibility filled the essence of that century’s last decade. Then the 9/11 attacks threw a large bucket of water on that flame of hope. As the post-soviet order developed, Western world leaders continued to back a period of engagement that would lead to assimilation. An approach seemingly based on a confidence that the intrinsic values of freedom and democracy were contagious virtues that would impregnate any system they hugged. 

As the third decade of the twenty-first century progresses that flame of hope is diminished, at times it appears to be struggling to stay alight. The world has moved into a period of increasing geo-political instability.  Western liberal democracy is challenged and there is a loss of certainty in its stability. It is depressingly possible that we are in an early phase of the most unstable geo-political period we have seen in over 70 years. An overtly aggressive and unrepentant Russia presses the eastern borders of Europe in the West. To the East, China’s Communist Party masters (CCP) assert their growing authority over territory, old and new, near and far.  Many may be thankful that the battle lines often remain unclear and therefore not their concern. Yet each trimester sees previously opaque ambitions become more apparent. These trends of quiet national aggression have been more readily identified by some than others but for many the reality of their impending impact is not yet apparent.

Of particular interest is the CCP’s significant success at developing a network of influence through the Belt and Road initiatives. Belt and road has provided the Chinese state with financial, and therefore political, leverage around the world. Often in areas of the globe that hold the very resources COP26’s agreements have prioritised. That material leverage is the first step in establishing a local connection that can later be used to progress programmes of community manipulation and the development in internal pressures.

In the cut and thrust of debate in Western democracies ‘fake news’ and ‘misinformation’ are regularly bandied about in order to dismiss disliked views, or they are terms used to beat opponents over the head with. Disinformation, misinformation and fake news are terms should be taken seriously and used carefully. Disinformation – the use of false or misleading information with malign intent^[2] – posing the greatest threat and most challenging to counter. 

When it comes to information wars, over the last decade extremist groups have proved to be pioneers in the terrane of communications.  Violent extremist and terrorist groups have fastidiously developed advanced communications that sow division in their target societies and recruit followers. The work undertaken by radical pseudo-religious groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State on the one hand, and Far Right or Extreme Right-Wing groups like National Action or Proud Boys on the other is well documented. In particular their use of communications to build a narrative and perpetuate a world view that has a basis or relevance among the people they are seeking a connection with. Commonly it is also a world view at odds with the core and long-standing principles on which Western democracies are based. 

As the Zero Carbon agenda progresses the extraction and refinement of natural resources will continue as the basis for industrial society. The essential processing practices become increasingly important pieces in play in the game that is geo-politics and power. It is around these locations and among their surrounding communities that the game will be played out. In that context the primary role of communications stands out. Local communities are already being targeted by aggressive state actors pursuing an independent and aggressive agenda. Operators who have not prioritised delivery of their stabilisation strategy through their own communications will lose out.  

---

^[1] Brian Balkus, article – The Mineral Conflict Is Here, published by PALLADIUM online, August 8, 2022

^[2] Nina Jankowicz, How to Lose the Information War: Russia, Fake News, and the Future of Conflict, webinar 06mins46secs, University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School, Apr 9, 2021